Climate change is a change of everything in our life – the secret of this regularity sits in popular E=mc2 law. Unfortunately, the regime which is controlling capacity transfers between equation’s “E” and “m” is at the stage of decay (YES, COPs are guards of the effeciency of the Einstein-formulated law!). World climate-energy policy experiences collapse of Peace of Westphalia model of governing.

That’s why, cause of concern is that global public opinion witnesses phase of federalization in the area of greenhouse gases (GHG) mitigation process. Federalization in specific meaning „indvidualistic parcelization”, liquidation of so called international supersymmetry order, caused, from one side because of General Assembly Resolution 1803 on Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources (GAR 1803) litter and from the other by ineffable doubt about decreasing legitimation of UNFCCC’s body motive power.

All over the Earth, countries – without waiting for COPs decision over shape and form of post-Kyoto agreement – are annoucing its’ own reduction limits for the most popular GHG component – carbon dioxide. The examples of this occurence are: US-China over-the-counter agreement, declaration of Russia, Canada and Australia that earlier flagship document developed by COPs, Kyoto Protocol, did not work – emissions globally grew than felt – and final prove is graph below. Generated and deeped spaghetti bowl effect, connected with mentioned “indvidualistic parcelization”, does not serve to solve posed in front of the COPs mitigation problems.

frankel fig1 21 nov

Progressive decay within world climate-energy order manifests istelf by determined countries tailor-made targets (anti-supersymmetric), varing base years, percentage stake or even the paths leading to the mitigation goal of reducing GHG. It is a very dangerous chaos-increasing phenomenon, for which humanity can pay huge price of anarchy – fatal cost applied by neoclassical doctrines being in force within international “order”.

In this context it is worth asking few questions. Are UNFCCC Conferences of Parties (COPs), intergovernmental institution which the one-and-only relative success is Kyoto Protocol, targeting the negotiations’ wall? Is the country-centric formula of negotiations following the Zeitgeist? Where the ontological sense of gathering over 50,000 delegates lies?

COP 21, which will take place from November 30th to December 11th in Paris, has one sink-or swim target – reach an agreement about climate-energy post-2020 regime. However, since COPs are systematically collapsing under its’ own “weight” due to huge responsibility carried on its’ shoulders, is building intergenerational dialogue between different-calibrated countries thoughtful? Mangle of interests is caused by Pareto Optimum. Among the vast masses of COP 21′ participants, there will be representatives of all socio-economic dychotomies: small-big, rich-poor, service, agriculture or industry-oriented countries, subjects with trade deficties and surpluses, beneficients and benefactors of FDIs and so on.There is a lack of common denominator as Greenhouse Development Rights (GDRs) say.

Additionaly, as practice shows, countries as a holistic organisms and en masse, are not cradles of innovation because of complicated geoeconomy of scale and ressistance of matter as regards the matter of innovation implementation governance.

But there is a light in the tunnel… complete opposite site are cities “embeded” in those countries. Cities are compact (compared to the countries), have economic strength and the magnetic power of talents’ attraction. Finally are complete insitutional denial of state-centric political structure. National interests are very often detached from the interests of the city. Moreover, cities can act beyond national borders by finding out and afilliating identical concerns of other cities which are struggling with similar problems. Similar problems are, in turn, on account of same socio-economic grounds.

Cities, under the auspices of i.e. World Association of Major Metropolises Metropolis, concentrating – for now – over 10 % of world population (685 mln people) and number of over 500 cities (and still growing), can become a viable counterweight to the states rule of law. Terror of current status quo will hit cities at first. Forthcoming scale of unrest, where 75 % of world population will live in the agglomerations and will generate 75 % of global GHG emissions can push cities into theirs’ arms. Materialization of theirs’ struggling could be Global Joint Venture of the Cities, in the form of regional or intraregional sections and purchasing groups, which will wield bargaining chip i.e. during negotiations with corporational patents- and warrants-holders.

Therefore, statement that time of country-leading world climate-energy order construction process is over is NOT unreasonable.

Source of photo: Oxfam International (flickr)

Source of graph: voxeu.org